Tuesday, September 27, 2016

The Secrets of Cheryl Mills


This Is Why the Middle Class Is Dying


Bridgewater Calculates How Much Time Central Banks Have Left

Ok fine, central banks are "running out of road", however at the same time they are terrified to rip (or even peel) the band-aid off. This has put the system in an unstable equilibrium: on one hand, central bankers - as even they admit - need to hand over the growth impulse over to governments, yet on the other hand, they terrified of even the smallest change to the status quo as they know they may undo some 7 years of "wealth effect" creation overnight.

How much longer can this charade continue?

While many would be quick to answer "indefinitely" that is not true, because with every bond, ETF or stock, purchased by central bankers they come to the point where they either monetize the entire lot, or they increasingly impair the functioning of the capital markets (just ask the dozens of marquee hedge funds that have shuttered in recent years).

Luckily, in a recent analysis, Ray Dalio's Bridgewater asked precisely this question, and even better, provided the answer to how much time is left until both the ECB and BOJ hit the limits on their existing programs. 

As the chart below shows, assuming no changes to existing programs, the ECB and the BOJ, the two central banks most actively monetizing debt currently, have 8 and 26 months respectively, if they do no changes to their programs. 

However, if incremental easing is layered on, like expanding the scope of their bond buying programs or purchasing equities even more aggressively, the total rises substantially. The final answer: 68 months, or just above 5 and a half years,  in the case of the ECB, were it to steamroll all political opposition and monetize virtually every possible bond (and 20% of the equity market), and 48 months, or 4 years, in the case of the BOJ.

The Donald Nailed It: “We Are In A Big Fat Ugly Bubble”

This is why both Democrats and establishment republicans do not like Trump.  Do you really want to understand global finance and central bank corruption?  Read this.


Wells Fargo or the Federal Reserve: Who’s the Bigger Fraud?


"America Is On Our Side": Al-Nusra Commander Tells German Press US Is Arming Jihadists


Sunday, September 25, 2016

Elect The Warmonger Killary And You Will Have Victoria Nuland As Secretary Of State

It's interesting that two former officials of the Reagan administration, considered pro-military and defense spending, are openly criticizing former GOP Robert Kagan and Victoria Nuland, and portraying them as war-mongers.  This shows just how extremely hawkish Hillary Clinton is on foreign policy, as Kagan and Nuland are in her camp.  And people think Donald Trump is dangerous?  Perhaps, but Hillary could start World War III.


Something Odd Emerges When Fact Checking The "Fact Checkers"


17 Nobel Laureates and 1200+ Economists Agree with Ben Carson re U.S. Fiscal Gap

The government is running a ponzi scheme, applying cash accounting to report their financials, instead of GAAP accrual accounting.


Friday, September 23, 2016

More Troubling Evidence That Hillary Clinton Will Start WW3 – Part 2

We’re going to war — either hybrid in nature to break the Russian state back to its 1990s subordination, or a hot war (which will destroy our country). Our citizens should know this, but they don’t because our media is dumbed down in its “Pravda”-like support for our “respectable,” highly aggressive government. We are being led, as C. Wright Mills said in the 1950s, by a government full of “crackpot realists: in the name of realism they’ve constructed a paranoid reality all their own.” Our media has credited Hillary Clinton with wonderful foreign policy experience, unlike Trump, without really noting the results of her power-mongering. She’s comparable to Bill Clinton’s choice of Cold War crackpot Madeleine Albright as one of the worst Secretary of States we’ve had since … Condi Rice? Albright boasted, “If we have to use force it is because we are America; we are the indispensable nation. We stand tall and we see further than other countries into the future.”
Hillary’s record includes supporting the barbaric “contras” against the Nicaraguan people in the 1980s, supporting the NATO bombing of the former Yugoslavia, supporting the ongoing Bush-Iraq War, the ongoing Afghan mess, and as Secretary of State the destruction of the secular state of Libya, the military coup in Honduras, and the present attempt at “regime change” in Syria. Every one of these situations has resulted in more extremism, more chaos in the world, and more danger to our country. Next will be the borders of Russia, China, and Iran. Look at the viciousness of her recent AIPAC speech (don’t say you haven’t been warned). Can we really bear to watch as Clinton “takes our alliance [with Israel] to the next level”? Where is our sense of proportion? Cannot the media, at the least, call her out on this extremism? The problem, I think, is this political miasma of “correctness” that dominates American thinking (i.e. Trump is extreme, therefore Hillary is not).
This is why I’m praying still for Bernie Sanders, because he’s the only one willing, at least in the name of fiscal sanity, to cut back on our foreign interventions, bring the troops home, and with these trillions of dollars no longer wasted on malice, try to protect the “homeland” by actually rebuilding it and putting money into its people, schools, and infrastructure. - Oliver Stone
Oliver Stone endorsing Bernie Sanders is not surprising, given his left leanings.  What is more surprising to convention wisdom is Stone's denunciation of Hillary Clinton.  He actually compares Trump as the more favorable candidate, despite Trump's flaws.  In hindsight, Stone's opinion of Hillary should be surprise anyone.  Her track record of missteps leaves some pretty heavy clues.

What If We're in a Depression But Don't Know It?


Russia Views Hillary Clinton as An “Existential Threat” to Peace

Hillary Clinton is the war hawk presidential candidate, not Donald Trump.  This article is spot on about US foreign policy in the middle east.  It doesn't even go into Ukraine's regime change and subsequent civil war, instigated by the US and NATO, not Russia.


Tuesday, September 20, 2016

The Invisible American

I've been reading a lot about a "recovering" economy. It was even trumpeted on Page 1 of The New York Times and Financial Times last week. 

I don't think it's true.

The percentage of Americans who say they are in the middle or upper-middle class has fallen 10 percentage points, from a 61% average between 2000 and 2008 to 51% today.

Ten percent of 250 million adults in the U.S. is 25 million people whose economic lives have crashed.

What the media is missing is that these 25 million people are invisible in the widely reported 4.9% official U.S. unemployment rate.

Only In California - Governor Jerry Brown Signs Bill To Regulate Cow Flatulence


In yet another attack on California businesses, yesterday Governor Jerry Brown signed into law a bill (SB 1383) that requires the state to cut methane emissions from dairy cows and other animals by 40% by 2030.  The bill is yet another massive blow to the agricultural industry in the state of California that has already suffered from the Governor's passage of a $15 minimum wage and a recent bill that makes California literally the only state in the entire country to provide overtime pay to seasonal agricultural workers after working 40 hours per week or 8 hours per day.

"The California Air Resources Board wants to regulate cow emissions, even though its Short-Lived Climate Pollutant (SLCP) reduction strategy acknowledges that there’s no known way to achieve this reduction.
Among other things, compliance with the bill will likely require California dairies to install "methane digesters" that convert the organic matter in manure into methane that can then be converted to energy for on-farm or off-farm consumption.  The problem, of course, is that methane digesters are expensive and with California producing 20% of the country's milk we suspect that means that California has just passed another massive "food tax" on the country.

That said, many California dairies will probably elect to simply close down and move to other states as they did in 2015.  Per the California Department of Food and Agriculture, all but 1 of California's top 10 dairy producing counties saw a reduction in dairy production in 2015.   

China Now Dumping Unprecedented Amounts Of U.S. Treasuries


Saturday, September 17, 2016

Friday, September 16, 2016

Friday, September 2, 2016

"Tremendous Ripple Effects" - Retailers Demand Bailout After Hanjin Collapse Paralyzes Trade

This could be the black swan that causes commerce to collapse, earnings to nose dive, and markets to plummet.  At the very least, it will be painted as a disaster, justifying an imminent bursting of the bubble.


The "Secret Sauce" of the Byzantine Empire: Stable Currency, Social Mobility


Deutsche Bank Refuses Delivery Of Physical Gold Upon Demand

There are no two ways about it.  This is a commercial signature failure to deliver physical gold--an outright default from Deutsche Bank.  The price of physical gold should be soaring right about now.