Normalcy Bias

"By the end of 1935, 100,000 Jews had left Germany, but 450,000 still [remained]. Wealthy Jewish families... kept thinking and hoping that the worst was over...

Many of the German Jews, brilliant, cultured, and cosmopolitan as they were, were too complacent. They had been in Germany so long and were so well established, they simply couldn't believe there was going to be a crisis that would endanger them. They were too comfortable. They believed the Nazi's anti-Semitism was an episodic event and that Hitler's bark was worse than his bite. [They] reacted sluggishly to the rise of Hitler for completely understandable but tragically erroneous reasons. Events moved much faster than they could imagine." - Barton Biggs in "Wealth, War, and Wisdom

“In the world of psychology, they call this the ‘normalcy bias.’ You see, the normalcy bias actually refers to our natural reactions when facing a crisis. The normalcy bias causes smart people to underestimate the possibility of a disaster and its effects. In short: People believe that since something has never happened before… it never will. We are all guilty of it… it’s just human nature.The normalcy bias also makes people unable to deal with a disaster, once it has occurred. Basically… people have a really hard time preparing for and dealing with something they have never experienced.   The normalcy bias often results in unnecessary deaths in disaster situations. For example, think about the Jewish populations of World War II…This is one of the most tragic examples of the devastating effects of the ‘normalcy bias’ the world has ever seen.”  - Porter Stansberry